Brexit or the joy of the jilted spouse

The EU savours the idea of freeing itself once and for all from London, who lacked the commitment to their ‘shared’ project

17 SEP 2017 - 00: 00 CEST

Tomorrow  a fresh round of negotiations - the fourth - begins between the United Kingdom and the European Commission with the aim of reaching an agreement on the terms of Brexit. The previous three have done little more than consolidate positions, and, as a result, it has been concluded that reaching an agreement will be extremely difficult. The jilted spouse (the EU) is demanding that the partner now walking out (London), whom is just beginning to realise, with horror, that breaking up after 44 years of living together will be far more expensive and complicated than it had originally foreseen, make payment for the damage it has inflicted on their relationship. It is part of the weirdness overpowering this estranged couple that the jilted spouse has just discovered the unexpected joy of being forever free from a partner who was never completely faithful to their shared commitments.

Pro-European spirits now swell contemplating new projects, always opposed by the British, such as those set out last week by the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, covering the single currency, the Schengen zone or immigration. Even within the European Parliament they are now in huddles on how to divvy up the 73 seats occupied by British MEPs, including the Eurosceptics, who have poisoned their fellow citizens with their scathing criticisms of Brussels, based mainly on fake news. Some countries, like Spain, stand to gain from this redistribution.

It is the first time that one of the EU Member States abandons the project. Today, the new approach of the 27 remaining Member States, who have made a common cause against the defector, is to make a virtue of a necessity. With or without an agreement - except where there is an extension-, the United Kingdom will be leaving on 19 March 2019. There is even talk of a new European rebirth coinciding with that date. But is such joy a mere illusion, a dream from which an abrupt awakening can be expected?

The United Kingdom is one of the richest of the EU Member States. It contributes 10,000 million euros net per year to Community coffers. The next multi-annual budgets (from 2021 onwards) therefore, require some cutting back, by about 17%. There will be less money to go around. But, as is now beginning to dawn on the British negotiators, their country obtains, by mere dint of being a club member, gains that are more difficult to quantify. Hence the UK’s resistance to abandoning the single market.

The clearest example where the new Europe may benefit economically from Brexit is in the field of defence. If the 27 Member States manage to launch the European Defence policy, which was always held back by London, savings of 26,000 million euros stand to be made. It is the cost of the current lack of coordination within the EU, and the reason why, for example, there are so many different combat-ready aircraft and tanks.

Contemplating such prospects, it is entirely logical that the newly-abandoned spouse will this week listen with not a little reticence to Theresa May’s proposals in Florence for a "privileged relationship" between her country and the EU.*

* This is a translation of an editorial opinion piece that was published in Spanish newspaper El Pais on 17 September 2017